ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: In March 2020, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. This led to the outright cancellation of away rotations and in person residency interviews for the class of 2021. This study aims to identify the geographic relationships in the orthopedic match and further explore COVID-19's effect on these geographic relationships. Furthermore, we aim to compare the home program match rates before and after COVID-19. SETTING: Southern Illinois University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopedic Surgery (tertiary, university-based). DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Residency websites and social media sites were used to record basic residency information as well as each resident's year, matriculated medical school, and matriculated medical school geographic data. This information was used to evaluate the proportion of orthopedic residents from "home program" medical schools and evaluate the geographic relationship of matched orthopedic residents. 202 Orthopedic residencies were initially identified and 134 allopathic and nonmilitary residency programs met the inclusion criteria. In all, 3253 of the 3931 (82.7%) current U.S orthopedic residents were included in the analysis. RESULTS: In the 4 orthopedic surgery residency classes before the pandemic (2017-2020), 21.8% of residency slots were filled by home program students. During the pandemic match cycle (2021), this number jumped to 28.2% (p < 0.0006). The increase was observed consistently across residency subgroup analysis: class size, doximity rank, and doximity research rank. Correspondingly, there was a statistically significant increase from 34.7% (2017-2020) to 39.3% (2021) (pâ¯=â¯0.0318) in residencies matching with same state medical students. Regional trends stayed consistent. Our study showed that residency programs matched applicants who went to same region medical schools during the 2020 to 2021 cycle at nearly the exact same rate as they did pre-pandemic (63.6%, up from 63.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that despite widespread virtual away rotations and virtual open houses, residency programs showed an increased preference for their home program students. This trend was significant and widespread, highlighting the generalized nationwide hesitation of both residency programs and students on the virtual interview process.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Since the first published cases of the Coronavirus disease known as COVID-19 in the city of Wuhan Hubei Province in China, up until to the time of preparation of this report in mid-September 2020, more than 30 million people have been infected all over the world. In March 2020, more than 300,000 cases have been reported all over Iraq. This study aims to represent data analysis, modelling and forecasting approaches to the presented data in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. METHODOLOGY: The project involves mathematical models for forecasting and artificial simulations using particles. In the study, time series models including Simple Exponential Model, Holt's Method and Brown's Models have been used for the forecasting of the future potential rates in the area. A series of simulations have been conducted to observe the possibilities of virus spread rates in a virtual world which represents a quarter of Erbil. RESULTS: The outcome of the study shows how the disease have spread in Kurdistan, and what are the current rates to compare with neighbour regions. The modelling clearly shows that with cases still sporadically appearing, the risk of second and third waves of infections is high. CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, the regional government must reduce unnecessary gatherings to the lowest possible level. A scientific registry system of disease statistics must be put in place and rigorously updated all the times. We recommend the officials use a nationwide database provided to the public to monitor movement of every infected individual, to prevent further spread.